California could experience a mega-quake the size of Mexico’s

Mexico was hit by an 8.2 quake. California could get hit by one, too. (Los Angeles Times) The 8.2 magnitude earthquake that ravaged southern Mexico on Thursday was the largest to shake the country in nearly a century. Like California, Mexico is a seismically active region that has seen […]

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Mexico was hit by an 8.2 quake. California could get hit by one, too. (Los Angeles Times)

The 8.2 magnitude earthquake that ravaged southern Mexico on Thursday was the largest to shake the country in nearly a century.

Like California, Mexico is a seismically active region that has seen smaller quakes that have caused death and destruction. But Thursday’s temblor is a reminder that even larger quakes — while rare — do occur.

Scientists say it’s possible for Southern California to be hit by a magnitude 8.2 earthquake. Such a quake would be far more destructive to the Los Angeles area because the San Andreas fault runs very close to and underneath densely populated areas.

The devastating quakes that hit California over the last century were far smaller than the Thursday temblor, which the Mexican authorities set at magnitude 8.2 and the U.S. Geological Survey placed at 8.1. Mexico’s earthquake produced four times more energy than the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake, a magnitude 7.8, which killed 3,000 people and sparked a fire that left much of the city in ruins.

Southern California’s most recent mega-quake was in 1857, also estimated to be magnitude 7.8, when the area was sparsely populated.

A magnitude 8.2 earthquake would rupture the San Andreas fault from the Salton Sea — close to the Mexican border — all the way to Monterey County. Among the counties the fault would rupture through include Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

An 8.2 earthquake would be far worse here because the San Andreas fault runs right through areas such as the Coachella Valley — home to Palm Springs — and the San Bernardino Valley, along with the San Gabriel Mountains north of Los Angeles. The fault is about 30 miles from downtown Los Angeles.

Thursday’s earthquake occurred in the ocean off the Mexican coast and began about 450 miles from Mexico City — and it was relatively deep, starting about 43 miles under the surface.

In Mexico, “you’ve got [many] people a pretty long way aways from it,” seismologist Lucy Jones said Friday. But in Southern California, “we’d have a lot of people right on top of it. It would be shallow and it runs through our backyard.”

A magnitude 8.2 on the San Andreas fault would cause damage in every city in Southern California, Jones has said, from Palm Springs to San Luis Obispo.

Worse shaking than northridge

Intense shaking would be worse

Southern California would feel even worse shaking than what was experienced in Mexico. Mexico’s earthquake struck under the ocean and was deep; “severe” shaking (designated by the USGS as intensity level 8) struck only a relatively small part of the country that happens to be sparsely populated.

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Severe shaking, colored in orange and signifying intensity level 8, only affected a small portion of Mexico. (U.S. Geological Survey)

In contrast, the 6.7 earthquake that struck Northridge in 1994 was smaller in magnitude and produced less overall energy. But because that earthquake was extremely shallow — striking between just four to 12 miles under the surface — the intensity of shaking that humans felt at the surface was far worse than what hit Mexico.

People in the San Fernando Valley during the 1994 Northridge earthquake felt “violent” shaking, which the USGS classifies as intensity level 9.

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The magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquake in 1994 produced intensity level 9 shaking — violent shaking — in a small section of the San Fernando Valley. (U.S. Geological Survey)

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas would produce intensity level 10 shaking, which is perceived by humans as “extreme,” according to a USGS report published in 2008 called ShakeOut that envisioned such a scenario. Extreme shaking would blanket huge swaths of Southern California — an earthquake no one alive today has experienced in this region.

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A magnitude 7.8 earthquake would bring intensity level 10 shaking — extreme shaking — to a vast area of Southern California. (U.S. Geological Survey)

The ShakeOut scenario envisioned the earthquake beginning to move the San Andreas fault at the Salton Sea close to the Mexican border, then moving rapidly to the northwest toward L.A. County.

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This animation shows how intense shaking is directed from the San Andreas fault into the Los Angeles Basin. Areas of yellow indicate strong shaking; orange is “very strong” shaking and red is “violent” or “extreme” shaking, causing collapses. (U.S. Geological Survey / Southern California Earthquake Center)

Mexico City rode out Thursday’s earthquake better than the devastating 1985 temblor, in large part because the capital is so far away. The capital is about double the distance from Thursday’s epicenter as it was from the earthquake that struck 32 years ago and killed thousands of people.

What an 8.2 earthquake would do

Scenario of an 8.2 earthquake

The U.S. Geological Survey published a hypothetical scenario of what a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault would look like. (In this scenario, a magnitude 8.2 earthquake would be worse because the fault would rupture farther north, bringing more intense shaking to areas such as San Luis Obispo.)

Here’s what could happen if it struck at 10 a.m. on a dry, calm Thursday in November, based on an earlier interview with Jones and according to the ShakeOut report:

The death toll could be one of the worst for a natural disaster in U.S. history: nearly 1,800, about the same number of deaths as resulted from Hurricane Katrina.

More than 900 could die from fire; more than 400 from the collapse of vulnerable steel-frame buildings; more than 250 from other building damage; and more than 150 from transportation accidents, such as car crashes due to stoplights being out or broken bridges.

Los Angeles County could suffer the highest death toll, more than 1,000, followed by Orange County, with more than 350 dead; San Bernardino County, with more than 250 dead; and Riverside County, with more than 70 dead. Nearly 50,000 could be injured.

Damage to infrastructure

Main freeways to Las Vegas and Phoenix that cross the San Andreas fault would be destroyed in this scenario; Interstate 10 crosses the fault in a dozen spots and Interstate 15 would see the roadway sliced where it crosses the fault, with one part of the roadway shifted from the other by 15 feet, Jones said.

“Those freeways cross the fault, and when the fault moves, they will be destroyed, period,” Jones said. “To be that earthquake, it has to move that fault, and it has to break those roads.”

The aqueducts that bring in 88% of Los Angeles’ water supply and cross the San Andreas fault all could be damaged or destroyed, Jones said.

A big threat to life would be collapsed buildings. As many as 900 unretrofitted brick buildings close to the fault could come tumbling down on occupants, pedestrians on sidewalks and even roads, crushing cars and buses in the middle of the street.

Fifty brittle concrete buildings housing 7,500 people could completely or partially collapse. Five high-rise steel buildings — of a type known to be seismically vulnerable — holding 5,000 people could completely collapse.

Some 500,000 to 1 million people could be displaced from their homes, Jones said.

Threat to electrical grid

Southern California could be isolated

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